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I am looking at my calendar for the next few days, and I am not going to lie, my stress levels are climbing. If you trade or watch the markets like I do, you know that the next few days are going to be wild. There is a ton of big news coming out that will completely change which way prices go.
Instead of panic buying or selling everything because I am scared, I am sitting down to map out exactly what is coming up this week. Here is what I am watching from July 20 to July 24, how I plan to play both the good and bad outcomes, and exactly what I am seeing on the charts for Bitcoin.
The Make or Break Chart for Bitcoin
Before jumping into the daily calendar, I need to talk about what is happening with BTC. I have been staring at the weekly chart, and we are sitting at a massive crossroads right now.
I am tracking a major descending trendline on the weekly view. Right now, my bias is completely tied to this line. If Bitcoin can finally break out above this yellow trendline, I think we are looking at the start of a massive bull run. My personal speculation is that a clean breakout could blast us all the way up to the $125,000 to $130,000 range, which lines up perfectly with the top macro Fibonacci levels.
But if we fail to break it, things could get ugly fast. If the market rejects this line, my downside target is a drop back down to around $46,000, or even lower towards the major support levels near $39,000. It is a massive binary play, and this week's macro events will likely decide which path we take.
July 20: China and Canada News
On Monday, China is announcing its new interest rates, and Canada is dropping its latest inflation numbers.
The Bullish Path: If China cuts its rates to help its economy, and Canada shows that inflation is dropping, the whole market will smile. Stocks and crypto will likely jump, and we will start the week on a great note.
The Bearish Path: If China does nothing and Canada’s inflation spikes up, everyone will worry that high prices are here to stay. Expect a lot of selling and a stressful Monday afternoon.
July 21: Europe Economic Updates
Tuesday is all about how European businesses and workers are doing. We get the UK jobs report and a big survey on how European companies feel about the future.
The Bullish Path: If companies feel good and people are keeping their jobs without demanding crazy high salaries, the Euro and the Pound will rally. It shows the economy is strong but steady, giving risk assets more room to move.
The Bearish Path: If business confidence collapses, it means a recession could be coming. Investors will run away from volatile assets and hide their money in safe options like the US dollar.
July 22: UK Inflation and Tech Earnings (Tesla & Google)
Wednesday is going to be a massive day. The UK drops its inflation numbers in the morning, but the real show starts after the US market closes when Tesla and Google report their profits.
The Bullish Path: If UK inflation drops, that is great. But if Tesla and Google show massive earnings and say their business is booming, tech stocks are going to absolutely skyrocket, which usually spills over into a massive crypto push.
The Bearish Path: If Tesla and Google miss their targets or say that costs are getting too high, the entire tech sector will tank. This could drag the whole market down with it and force BTC to reject that crucial trendline.
July 23: Europe Central Bank Decision
Thursday brings the latest interest rate decision from the European Central Bank.
The Bullish Path: If the bank hints that they might lower interest rates soon because the economy is calming down, traders will celebrate. Lower rates mean cheaper borrowing, which is great for global market liquidity.
The Bearish Path: If the bank talks tough and says they need to keep interest rates high for a long time, it will crush the mood. The US dollar will spike, and assets across the board will slide.
July 24: The Big US Inflation Report
Friday is the main event before the giant Fed meeting next week. The US releases the PCE report, which is the exact inflation tracker the Federal Reserve watches closest.
The Bullish Path: If this report shows that inflation in the US is finally cooling down, it gives everyone a green light. Traders will go into the weekend feeling amazing, expecting the Fed to be nice to us next week. This could be the exact fundamental trigger that forces the BTC breakout to $130,000.
The Bearish Path: If inflation comes in hotter than expected, it is a disaster. It means the Fed will keep squeezing the economy, and we will probably see a massive market drop right before the weekend, sending BTC down toward that $46,000 floor.
Honestly, looking at this lineup makes me tired already. But this is the game we play. The secret to surviving a crazy week like this isn't guessing the future perfectly, it is just having a plan so you do not make emotional choices when the candles start moving fast.
How are you preparing for this week? Are you sitting on cash, or are you actively placing bets on the Bitcoin breakout?
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